{"time":1718807391686,"blocks":[{"id":"j4dGKxYNGn","data":{"text":"Hello Investors,"},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"5O0Qwy4OEo","data":{"text":"Crypto is down about 11% in the last 2 weeks and we have a mix of market signals."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"a5fJ90cbeo","data":{"text":"We had a week of record inflows, followed by a week of outflows after the FOMC meeting. All while S&P and Nasdaq keep pushing their ATHs."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"NzKVmIMWF8","data":{"text":"Let’s explore deeper."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"f4QiJAR-GK","data":{},"type":"delimiter"},{"id":"phTvNJxhmG","data":{"text":"FOMC Meeting","level":1},"type":"header"},{"id":"To2bRFGmrR","data":{"file":{"url":"https://publisher-ap.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/next-s3-uploads/739e345b-411b-4db3-b5fb-7d0b119a025a/Default_Create_a_professional_and_visually_engaging_image_of_G_0.jpg"},"caption":"","stretched":false,"withBorder":false,"withBackground":false},"type":"image"},{"id":"8cjmLdIoDO","data":{"text":"Last Wednesday we received the CPI numbers, which indicated that inflation remained stable and unchanged in May. Markets reacted positively, resulting in $100m inflows into crypto assets*."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"Gg0tgdCKwd","data":{"text":"Later on Wednesday, we heard hawkish comments after the FOMC meeting, with FED announcing that rates will remain unchanged, and signaling that there should be only a single rate cut in 2024."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"GyzeoyEP9a","data":{"text":"Nasdaq and S&P 500 took the positive news out of this, attacking new all-time highs, while crypto retracted and saw outflows in the next days, finishing the week in the red."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"rZTDVMTBJX","data":{"text":"According to CoinShares, the outflows were $600m, the highest number since March 22."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"bSo95q0hMc","data":{},"type":"delimiter"},{"id":"YkdnQ9R0f9","data":{"text":"Ether ETFs could start trading in early July.","level":1},"type":"header"},{"id":"-u1m-S6F_l","data":{"file":{"url":"https://publisher-ap.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/next-s3-uploads/ba1e2b9f-0ee7-478e-a742-e04678a9535b/Default_Create_a_professional_and_visually_engaging_image_of_E_1.jpg"},"caption":"","stretched":false,"withBorder":false,"withBackground":false},"type":"image"},{"id":"SoeVOg8IZ4","data":{"text":"The last time I wrote to you, we had the first (19b-4) approval for the ETH ETFs."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"8tzYkt1Y-t","data":{"text":"Back then it was estimated that the second (S-1) approval, and with that trading, could take up to 8-12 weeks."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"LdNTQiZR9O","data":{"text":"I mentioned the SEC requested expedited fillings which might result in faster approval."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"ePCV78BEaT","data":{"text":"Now, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas mentions it is likely the approval will happen much sooner - 2nd of July."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"YK2KZ_dj_w","data":{"text":"What does it mean for investors?","level":3},"type":"header"},{"id":"oXgYZ8uwMC","data":{"items":["ETH ETFs could trade as early as the beginning of July,","This would result in new liquidity coming to ETH,","Price is likely to react before, with the approval."],"style":"unordered"},"type":"list"},{"id":"DYIxz_fspG","data":{"text":"There is a chance this is already priced in and the move will be only cosmetic, or on the other side —> sell the news event."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"Ip72G-g31D","data":{"text":"That does not matter in the long run, it is a big milestone for crypto and should help classify ETH as an asset and reduce the uncertainty around it."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"ajYmBgLqTU","data":{"text":"Not to mention the inflows will come, and ~1/3 of ETH is locked and out of circulation —> the price impact will be that bigger with new money flowing in."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"M-jGa_j_9x","data":{},"type":"delimiter"},{"id":"2oqXCWAAqg","data":{"text":"How I see the market.","level":1},"type":"header"},{"id":"Hw_x8DK1K8","data":{"file":{"url":"https://publisher-ap.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/next-s3-uploads/d8382004-c727-43c3-8cab-a2f5293d3aeb/Default_Create_a_professional_and_visually_engaging_image_wher_0.jpg"},"caption":"","stretched":false,"withBorder":false,"withBackground":false},"type":"image"},{"id":"h3qydopwZT","data":{"text":"While the price is down, there are too many events around crypto, signaling stronger adoption and interest from big institutions, policymakers, and investors."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"gRDLZR2euR","data":{"text":"Just a few recent highlights:"},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"y1m66LZw7C","data":{"items":["PayPal partnering with Solana*,","Stripe launching stablecoin payments*, ","Fidelity entering JP Morgan’s blockchain*, ","The SEC drops the lawsuit against Consensys*,","Trump is a vocal crypto supporter and Biden is slowly adapting*,","BlackRock CIO for ETFs signaling public blockchains are the way*, "],"style":"unordered"},"type":"list"},{"id":"sBiMrIGZI6","data":{"text":"Plus, BlackRock’s BTC ETF might overtake their iShares Gold ETF this year*, showing just how big of a demand for crypto assets there is."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"MQylCewCmd","data":{"text":"There might be another drawback, even a bigger correction or a black swan event that would crash the market for months, but when we explore the macro cycle and past BTC cycles, the real action is yet to happen."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"5V52m6f1na","data":{"text":"Liquidity is expected to come end of 2024, and peak around summer 2025."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"XazZ-nUh1B","data":{"text":"Previous BTC cycles suggest the period from the bottom to halving, and from halving to the top, is almost the same."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"Ha56aYjQT9","data":{"text":"If history is to rhyme this time as well, we are looking towards summer 2025 for the market tops and DCA out of the crypto towards stables or other assets."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"N6IY1zZ734","data":{"text":"It will be difficult to cross $80k, but once we are past $100k, the media attention will help drive the price to new ATHs above that mark."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"1ubYv75pF1","data":{"text":"Before that, we can enjoy these periods of market drawbacks to accumulate and rebalance the portfolio as desired."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"L2133AsZiv","data":{"text":"While talking about possible ATHs, many institutions estimate BTC to cross $150k next year, Bernstein for example predicts approval by major warehouses and has a $200,000 target by the end of 2025."},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"TCVCIk6fki","data":{"text":"Regards,"},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"AL8T1Nwiig","data":{"text":"Matt Curda"},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"5gSM9e5KOG","data":{"text":"LinkedIn | Twitter"},"type":"paragraph"},{"id":"QFwzyWCQD6","data":{"text":"Web | Investment Fund"},"type":"paragraph"}],"version":"2.26.5"}